#38851 - 05/27/10 07:01 PM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: Adversary]
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Wijesin
stranger
Registered: 11/15/09
Posts: 34
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NK has the support of China in the Security Council and in other forums. Assassinations are generally frowned upon, and the US or the west would not risk pissing off China that way. No leader of a nation would like to let covert killing of their counterparts get out of hand, for obvious reasons. NK is also potentially so unstable that an assassination may lead to a collapse. Who, then, handles the civilian population? Or the very few nukes they have? SK does not want a desperation-strike, nor do they want to see the NK population starve any more than it already has.
The west may use the documentation that point to NK torpedoing the SK warship as a way to get China to put pressure on NK. China has leverage and a basis of understanding with NK, and concessions that NK gives to China may not be so bad for the NK leader(s) as the same given to the west.
Since torpedoing that boat is such an utterly stupid thing to do, seen with the eyes of the west, it may be that it actually reflects a power-play within the NK leadership. Presumably, defiance against SK, Japan and the west is seen as a way to show determination and courage within the group of people eligible for leadership. An analysis of the (wasteful) use of their tiny and hard-to-replace stock-pile of tiny warheads pointed towards this being an important factor in NK internal goings-on. Same thing here?
Edited by Wijesin (05/27/10 07:03 PM)
_________________________
-- Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs -- (Attributed to Sagan, Truzzi and Laplace)
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#38866 - 05/28/10 09:28 AM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: Wijesin]
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Adversary
pledge
Registered: 02/19/10
Posts: 93
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NK is also potentially so unstable that an assassination may lead to a collapse.
Who, then, handles the civilian population? Or the very few nukes they have?
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#38867 - 05/28/10 11:37 AM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: the earthly duck]
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Meq
Banned
active member
Registered: 08/28/07
Posts: 861
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In case anyone has any doubts as to how fucked-up a country North Korea is, take a look at this map of the Korean peninsula at night:
If that doesn't come across as genuinely terrifying, most likely nothing will...
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#38869 - 05/28/10 12:24 PM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: Adversary]
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Meq
Banned
active member
Registered: 08/28/07
Posts: 861
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That's real alright.
Not trying to raise a panic, but don't forget, the guy running the whole fiasco has fucking nukes.
The North Korean government claimed to be following a nuclear disarmament program.
Personally I don't believe a word of it.
Of course, you could always consider paying them a visit.
If you don't mind being closely monitored throughout your trip, lest you see something they don't want you to see...
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#38874 - 05/28/10 06:47 PM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: Adversary]
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Wijesin
stranger
Registered: 11/15/09
Posts: 34
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Adversary: NK is currently managed through its insane leadership and entrenched power structure. There is plenty scope for a dramatic collaps. When things get really bad (e.g. widespread starvation), NK gives some concessions and allows help to trickle into the country, something that cannot be done if the power structure disappears overnight. In the diplomatic dance devoted to this, NK acts like a maniac, is thrown a bone, gives an inch, or leaves in a huff, only to return at a later time to start ranting again. This behaviour is tolerated for a reason. NK will probably collapse at some point, but there are many different ways a country can do so. The "pouring" of NK people is one of the things that China and SK are trying to avoid.
_________________________
-- Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs -- (Attributed to Sagan, Truzzi and Laplace)
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#38893 - 05/29/10 06:53 AM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: the earthly duck]
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Morgan
stalker
Registered: 08/29/07
Posts: 2956
Loc: New York City
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You can't just go around offing leaders you don't like anymore. When you play with political situations, you will get burnt.
It's just a matter of trying to make a good decision and not fuck yourself.
After WW II some people said we should have gone in and taken Russia since the rest of the world was in no position to fight us, and then rewrite the map of the world. We didn't
The USA, propped up the Shah of Iran before he was overthrown by the students and radicals. We didn't really do enough when they the students and now current President (alleged) took those hostages at the embassy.
We trained Bin Laden to fight the Russians in Afghanistan.
We already fought the Korean War, and because as Wijean stated shit happened, and we are as we are today.
The Israelies (however you spell it) recently did take out a guy in a foreign country (I can't remember the name of the Arabic nation off hand) with stolen/forged passport documents. Currently, their representatives/diplomats were expelled from at least 2 countries, Australia being one of them.
If North Korea does send nukes, it's going to hit South Korea. There will be fallout, and people will die, but it won't be the end of the world. If anything, it might be for the best, if they kill each other, then China will roll in and have a new place to put their expanding population. I don't think the major nations will start nuking each other because the little short man started it. They are too smart for that.
Morgan
_________________________
Courage Conquering Fear
Fuck em if they can't take a joke
Don't Like What I Say, Kiss My Ass
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#38903 - 05/29/10 03:29 PM
Re: The north korea situation
[Re: Morgan]
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Shadow Dragon
pledge
Registered: 01/18/10
Posts: 95
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I don't think the major nations will start nuking each other because the little short man started it. They are too smart for that.
Morgan
I think you are over estimating the intelligence of world leaders. Remember, the first world war (one of the bloodiest wars in human history) was started with just an assassination in the Balkans. So I woulnd't doubt a major war starting over a nuke being fired. Particularly when there are US soldiers in S. Korea.
_________________________
"There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance." - Socrates
Cogito ergo sum.
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